AFTER five rounds of national league action, we’re supposed to be on the verge of drawing some early conclusions about most teams’ championship credentials.
But there is a small problem — how on earth are we supposed to do that? This is a competition where only three teams out of 32 have won more than 60 per cent of their games — and one of those three shipped four goals in the last round of games.
Anyone who can discern a pattern among this mess of teams beating each other is either an extraordinary football genius or a good enough bluffer to thrive in a big corporation. Take Cavan, Derry and Roscommon to one side, and it’s hard to pick another team that could declare themselves completely happy with their league campaign so far.
Mayo, Cork, Donegal, Monaghan, Down and Tipperary are among those who also have reasons to be somewhat content, but none of them have had a blemish-free spring.
It means that there have seldom been so many crucial games in round six. Tyrone’s visit to Cork this Sunday is an apt example. Mickey Harte’s side are joint second in the table, behind only the hosts, and yet there could scarcely be more uncertainty about just how serious a proposition they will be this summer.
They were played off the park by a Kildare side that seem close to certain to be relegated, and the Red Hands cannot dismiss that Houdini act as a one-off because they were even worse in the second half against Kerry in round four. That 3-15 to 0-9 scoreline against previously winless Kerry was humiliating enough that it can’t be washed away by Tyrone’s subsequent stroll against Westmeath.
True, there were mitigating circumstances in the Kerry loss; with 20 minutes to go, the game was even. That closing third was the worst chapter in Niall Morgan’s burgeoning inter-county career; he can reasonably be blamed for two of James O’Donoghue’s three goals.
Uncharacteristically, the Cavanaghs were outplayed at midfield late on and even then, if Bryan Sheehan had switched sides, the margin would have been far less, for Tyrone’s free-taking was as poor as Sheehan’s was excellent.
Tyrone's Mark Donnelly with Westmeath's Kieran GavinBut even if the 15-point margin can be explained, the perception that Tyrone, our pre-season dark horses for the business phase of the championship, are unreliable is not so easily disproved. A trip to Pairc Ui Rinn followed by the visit of the Dubs to Healy Park should provide us with at least some meaningful evidence.
With the top flight’s top six vying for four semi-final berths, Dublin v Mayo, Mayo v Derry and Kerry v Cork are the other most appealing games in the last two rounds.
Tyrone meet a Cork side who are in a similar boat to themselves, having encountered a serious setback for the first time under Brian Cuthbert. Beyond Dublin and Mayo, these are the two sides that are viewed as having the most potential to develop into serious contenders for Sam Maguire, and yet even in March, Sunday’s loser will see their stock drop significantly.
Though 29 counties sit below Cork and Tyrone in the current standings, it does not take much imagination to apply what journalist Kieran Shannon labelled “ah, but” punditry.
Cork have won four out of five, ah but three of those were home games against Kildare, Westmeath and Derry. Tyrone have lost once this year, ah but they were steeped in Newbridge, dismantled in the deep south.
Derry are on the crest of a wave, ah but that was a Dublin second string they beat. Kerry are resurgent, ah but Tyrone surrendered and Kildare are muck.
Cavan and Roscommon have been excellent, ah but a combined 15 of readers’ grannies would hammer Offaly, who have returned to regression.
Armagh have had a couple of decent results considering they are down so many first-teamers, ah but they were no match for Monaghan. Meath have recovered from a nightmare start to draw in Donegal and prevail in Portlaoise, ah but Eamonn Wallace’s cruciate is gone and they still carry too much mediocrity.
Even those at the top of division one face a do-or-decline tussle in Pairc Ui Rinn. If Cork and Tyrone supporters feel optimism being tainted with uncertainty, they can at least draw comfort from the thought that they are far from alone.
