IRELAND head into the Six Nations as defending champions and favourites. Yet despite last year’s heroics, when a championship was followed by autumn victories over South Africa and Australia, there are as many questions as answers hanging over Joe Schmidt’s side.
With Italy on the agenda this weekend, a win is expected. And with victory comes momentum, a key factor in determining this short, but intensely dramatic competition. Can back-to-back championships be secured for the first time in 32 years, when Ireland shared the title with France, having won it outright a year earlier? Let’s analyse the key issues ahead of Schmidt’s dates with destiny.
Will Johnny be good?
Despite his injury ravaged spell in Paris, Sexton has improved in the year-and-a-half he has spent with Racing, and when he is on song, as he was in Ireland’s decider against France in 2014, he is unstoppable. Yet a concussion injury has taken its toll.
Having not seen much game-time recently, he will return for the French clash on St Valentine’s Day hoping to pick up where he left off in the autumn. And while he has the class to do so, sport is an unforgiving arena for any performer, even world-class ones. Should Sexton find form, though, then Ireland are in business. “When he’s fit he is the best fly-half in the world,” says Shane Horgan. Few would argue with that assessment.
How will Ireland cope without Brian O’Driscoll?
The last time Ireland went into this competition without Brian O’Driscoll, it was called the Five Nations and the year was the last one of the 20th century. Aside from missing his leadership, Ireland also have to wonder who is best to fill the number 13 shirt. Throw in Gordon D’Arcy’s advancing years and it isn’t just one star who has disappeared.
Yet this factor didn’t hurt Ireland in November, when surprise victories were registered over Australia and South Africa. Robbie Henshaw and Jared Payne proved to be a superb centre partnership and with Luke Fitzgerald returning to form, Schmidt has options. Plus there is another unspoken issue surrounding O’Driscoll. He retired for a reason last year. If he was still around, his selection might be based on past glories not form.
Can Ireland’s scrum cope under the strain?
While Cian Healy is on the mend, he won’t be back in time for the Italian job. That is a worrying factor, given how the Azzurri’s strength lies in their pack. Yet the same was said about South Africa. And Ireland got away with it there. Still, Mike Ross’ lack of action this season with Leinster will have caused Schmidt a sleepless night or two.
Ireland rely on the big Cork man more than they do on anyone else, bar Sexton. Marty Moore and Jack McGrath are maturing nicely and the Schmidt policy of instructing his back five to be contributors, not sightseers, at scrum-time will help. Nothing will help as much as a fit Healy and Ross, though.
How will Ireland react to being favourites?
No matter how much he tries to play things down, Schmidt often ends up adding hype to different scenarios, not by his words but by his actions. From the moment he arrived in Ireland from Clermont-Auvergne in 2010, he has just kept on winning. Two Heineken Cups in his first two seasons were followed by the capture of the Amlin Cup and Pro 12 in his final year with Leinster. Year one with Ireland brought the Six Nations.
In year two he has already become just the second Ireland coach to deliver back-to-back wins over two of three Southern Hemisphere giants. Still being favourites won’t sit well with a team who like to enter siege-mentality mould. While this could represent a problem, it is also worth bearing in mind that Ireland are no longer serial losers at rugby. Six Heineken Cups shared between three provinces since 1999, plus a Grand Slam in 2009 and a Championship last year is evidence of a collective confidence that simply didn’t exist in the ’90s.
Stat attack
In 2014, Ireland scored more tries than any other team, and courtesy of Les Kiss’ smart defensive codes, conceded the fewest number. Their set-piece returns and discipline were also the best in the tournament. Another stat matters. Ireland avoided injury last year, allowing Schmidt to use just 18 starters in the five games. Plus Ireland have lost just once to Italy in the Six Nations since they entered the competition in 2000.
Is Paul O’Connell past his best?
The evidence of Munster’s defeat to Saracens would suggest so. He is 35, after all, and has been on the go for well over a decade in one of the toughest sports of all. Time remains the one opponent that great players cannot beat but it would take a brave, or stupid, man to write him off after one bad game.
So can Ireland do it again?
The short answer is yes. With Schmidt at the helm, Ireland have the best coach in the tournament, a man whose sharp mind is complemented by the fiery passion of his squad. Plus those players have talent. Sexton, Sean O’Brien (when fit), Healy, O’Connell, Rory Best, Conor Murray, Jamie Heaslip and Rob Kearney have class. Another title is on the cards.
See More: Ireland, Mike Ross, Six Nations
