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A simplified explanation of how Ireland can make the 2026 World Cup

This Friday in Zurich, Ireland will learn who they will face in their World Cup qualification group. The formats of UEFA and FIFA's tournaments can be confusing, so here's a simple breakdown of how things work.

The New World Cup Format
The old World Cup format pitted 32 teams into eight groups of four and onto the knockout rounds. For the 2026 tournament, it expands to 48 teams: 45 qualifying nations and the three host countries—the United States, Mexico, and Canada—qualify automatically.

At first glance, this might feel like Ireland's chances of qualifying have increased. Sadly, that's not the case.

How Europe Qualifies for 2026
Europe has been allocated 16 places for 2026, three more than previous tournaments. The teams will be drawn into 12 groups, each containing either four or five teams. The 12 group winners automatically qualify for the World Cup, with four others securing their place through a 16-team playoff. This playoff will feature the group runners-up and the four best-placed Nations League teams that finish outside the top two in their qualifying group.

🚨 Pots for the draw of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers are set!

🗓️ Draw on Friday, 13 December at 12:00 CET. pic.twitter.com/JpvAb9RvrZ

— Football Rankings (@FootRankings) November 19, 2024

Ireland's Group and Opponents
Ireland can end up in either a four-team group or a five-team group. Because of their admissibility to the Nations League playoffs against Bulgaria in March, there are some restrictions on the opponents they can get. But because only one team from the Nations League finals or playoffs can be in any five-team group, Ireland can be sure they will be in a four-team group unless there is some freak distribution in which all 12 groups do not contain a playoff team—in which case they could end up in a five-team section, and England or Switzerland are potential opponents, neither of whom are in the Nations League.

Additionally, Ireland’s chances of facing Kazakhstan are lower due to UEFA’s travel restrictions. Twelve countries, including Ireland, have excessive travel distances to Kazakhstan, so only one team from that group can be paired with Kazakhstan. While it’s still possible, it’s less likely.

The Unpredictable Nations League
The Nations League adds an extra layer of unpredictability. The competition features four quarter-finals:

Netherlands vs. Spain
Croatia vs. France
Denmark vs. Portugal
Italy vs. Germany

These playoff semifinal match-ups will be labelled as Nations League quarter-final winners/losers 1-4, which means that at the time of the World Cup draw, it's entirely possible that Ireland won't know their exact opponent, only that they will be a formidable team.

Best-Case Scenario for Ireland’s World Cup Group

A group with Croatia, Slovakia, Ireland, and Latvia would be favourable for Ireland. Croatia. This offers a good chance for Ireland's success.

Worst-Case Scenario for Ireland

A worst-case scenario for Ireland would involve facing top-seeded teams like France, Portugal, and the Netherlands.

World Cup Qualification Timeline
For the World Cup qualifiers, the five-team groups will start in March, while four-team groups will kick off in September. Matches are scheduled for September, October, and November, with a final window in June. The four-team groups also have the option to arrange two friendlies during the above windows.

What If Ireland Reaches the World Cup Playoffs?
If Ireland does advance to the World Cup play-offs, the semi-final is scheduled for March 26, 2026, with the final five days later. So, though it looks bleak, all hope is not lost for the Boys in Green.