THE UK government has published what it describes as the “reasonable worst-case” scenario the UK and Ireland could face in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
The six-page document, titled Operation Yellowhammer, details the possibly impact leaving the EU without a deal could have.
Food shortages, disrupted access to medical supplies, delays at ports, price hikes, business closures and increased public disorder are just a few of the concerns outlined in the document.
The UK government was forced to publish the document after MPs in the Houses of Parliament voted for it to be disclosed to the public.
It paints a concerning picture for the island of Ireland, with any no-deal scenario likely to put “significant pressure” on Ireland to find a solution to any border issues within a matter of days or face major barriers to trade.
Operation Yellowhammer warns that any plans to mitigated against the introduction of a harder border are likely to prove unsustainable.
Tariffs are likely to be applied to goods entering Ireland in a move that will “severely disrupt trade” in a development that could force some businesses close and others relocate. Any additional costs would also be passed on to customers.
The Agri-food sector’s reliance on cross-border supply chains puts it at significant risk while a split in the single energy market could occur, resulting in price hikes.
The document also warns of clashes between fishing vessels in the waters around Northern Ireland and warns of job losses, disruption and potential road blocks.
"Price and other differentials are likely to lead to a growth in illegitimate activity," the document adds.
"This will be particularly severe in border communities where both criminals and dissident groups already operate with greater threat and impunity."
The Government describes the scenario o in the document as the "reasonable worst case scenario".
However, it also warns of job losses of up to 40,0000, severe disruption and the potential panic buying of fuel.
Marked "official sensitive" a reduction in food choice at the supermarkets is likely along with general price increases.
“Low-income groups will be disproportionately affected by any price rises in food and fuel.”
