A LEADING doctor has highlighted the potential impact of coronavirus in Ireland.
Speaking on RTE [via The Sun], Professor Sam McConkey of the Royal College of Surgeons Ireland spoke of a worst-case scenario that could see four million people infected and up to 120,000 deaths.
Professor McConkey, who serves as the college’s Head of the Department of International Health and Tropical Medicine told the broadcaster “this is going to be a transformation of our society”.
“The best metaphor I can think of is the Spanish Flu mixed up with the Irish Civil War which was 100 years ago mixed up with the 1929 stock market crash — altogether at the same time,” he said.
“The worst case scenario I said before was a 20 per cent attack rate on the population and that 20 per cent of five million is one million people with a two per cent mortality.
“I was quoted saying 20,000 deaths potentially at that time. That was the worst-case scenario and now unfortunately we’ve ratcheted up.
“Things are actually worse now than they were when we look at what happened in Italy and China and other countries.
“Our best case scenario we’ve passed. So our best case scenario was that it would look like a regular flu.
"My median scenario is that we’d have a 20 per cent attack rate and 20,000 deaths.
“We normally have 30,000 deaths in a year in this country so that’s almost two thirds of the year’s deaths all in one epidemic.
“Worst case scenario is potentially up to an 80 per cent attack rate — that’s four million and again the two per cent death rate which could even be three or four per cent because a lot of the people in China haven’t recovered yet.
“So it could be two or three per cent of those four million people will die — that’s 80,000 to 120,000 deaths.”
Professor McConkey is calling for an all-government response to the unfolding crisis with 33 cases reported across the island of Ireland at the time of writing.
12 cases have been reported in Northern Ireland with another 21 confirmed across Ireland.
The assessment comes amid growing calls for the upcoming St Patrick’s Day parade and celebrations to be cancelled over fears about the potential spread of coronavirus.
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has so far resisted such calls, telling the press “there is no recommendation to cancel mass gatherings at this stage”.
