THE UK Met Office for the first time has issues a Red warning for exceptional heat, as temperatures of 40C have been forecast.
Exceptional heat is expected to affect a large part of England early next week, with temperatures likely in the high 30s C in some places and perhaps even reaching 40C.
The Red Extreme heat national severe weather warning will cover Monday and Tuesday (18 and 19 July) for parts of central, northern, eastern and southeastern England.
An Amber Extreme heat warning, has been in place for much of England and Wales for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday (17 – 19 July) since earlier this week. Today the amber areas are also being extended to cover Cornwall, west Wales and parts of southern Scotland.
Met Office Chief Meteorologist Paul Gundersen, said:
“Exceptional, perhaps record-breaking temperatures are likely early next week, quite widely across the red warning area on Monday, and focussed a little more east and north on Tuesday. Currently there is a 50% chance we could see temperatures top 40C and 80% we will see a new maximum temperature reached.
“Nights are also likely to be exceptionally warm, especially in urban areas. This is likely to lead to widespread impacts on people and infrastructure. Therefore, it is important people plan for the heat and consider changing their routines. This level of heat can have adverse health effects.”
Will we get record-breaking heat?
This is the first time there have been forecasts of 40C in the UK. The current record high temperature in the UK is 38.7C, which was reached at Cambridge Botanic Garden on 25 July in 2019.
Weather forecast models are run numerous times to help quantify the likelihood of a particular event occurring and estimate the uncertainty which is always present in weather forecasting to some degree. Some models are now producing a 50% chance of maximum temperatures in excess of 40C in isolated parts of the UK for the start of next week. Mid, to high, 30s Celsius will be seen more widely with an 80% chance we will exceed the current record.
What happens after Tuesday
Temperatures are expected to start to return closer to normal for the time of year from the middle of next week onwards as cooler air pushes across the country from the west.
Is this due to climate change?
“We hoped we wouldn’t get to this situation but for the first time ever we are forecasting greater than 40C in the UK," Climate attribution scientist at the Met Office, Dr Nikos Christidis said.
“In a recent study we found that the likelihood of extremely hot days in the UK has been increasing and will continue to do so during the course of the century, with the most extreme temperatures expected to be observed in the southeast of England.
“Climate change has already influenced the likelihood of temperature extremes in the UK. The chances of seeing 40°C days in the UK could be as much as 10 times more likely in the current climate than under a natural climate unaffected by human influence. The likelihood of exceeding 40°C anywhere in the UK in a given year has also been rapidly increasing, and, even with current pledges on emissions reductions, such extremes could be taking place every 15 years in the climate of 2100.”
Advice
“It is important to keep yourself hydrated and to find shade where possible when UV rays are strongest, between 11am and 3pm," said Dr Agostinho Sousa, Head of Extreme Events and Health Protection at UKHSA.
“If you have vulnerable family, friends and neighbours, make sure they are aware of how they can keep themselves protected from the warm weather.’’
Peter Jenkins, Director of Campaigns, Water UK said:
“Water companies are seeing substantial demand during this extremely hot weather. We can all help ensure there’s enough to go around by being mindful of the amount of water we use while ensuring we stay hydrated and safe.
“By making just small changes indoors or in the garden you can have a big impact on our water consumption.
Mel Clarke, Customer Service Director for Operations at National Highways, said:
“It is always important to plan ahead for your journey and this advice is no different during periods of hot weather. Our advice is that everyone should check their vehicles, such as tyres, coolant and oil levels, before heading out.”
See More: Met Office, Weather Warning
