IRELAND COULD face at least three further outbreaks of COVID-19 before the population develops herd immunity.
That’s according to new research led by Irish scientist and UCD graduate Dr Rosalyn Moran.
Dr Moran’s study warned that number could rise to as many as nine waves depending on what proportion of the population ends up developing an immunity to coronavirus in each wave.
The findings, published in the Irish Times, indicate that roughly 16.7% of the Irish population have will develop an immunity to the virus during this current wave.
However, Dr Moran’s research warns that that percentage will need to reach to around 60% before Ireland can be considered to have developed a herd immunity.
Herd immunity may only be required in the absence of an effective vaccine.
Dr Moran said "In the absence of strong seasonal effects, new medications or more comprehensive contact tracing, a further set of epidemic waves in different geographic centres are likely.
"These findings may have implications for ‘exit strategies’ from any lockdown stage."
The research also suggested that herd immunity could occur during the first wave in specific outbreak areas of the population.
Despite the study’s focus on immunity levels, the World Health Organisation recently warned that there is no proof yet that being infected with coronavirus provides immunity for any specific amount of time.
The study has identified the peak of Ireland’s current pandemic as either April 9 or this coming April 22.
It estimates that the overall number of deaths in Ireland over the first wave could reach 1,250.
At the time of writing, there have been 610 deaths in Ireland.
And the research says that the overall number of deaths in the first cycle can reach up to 1,250. There have been 610 deaths in Ireland so far.
