IRELAND COULD be facing more floods, longer cold snaps and other extreme weather scenarios as a direct result of the accelerated levels of global warming.
That’s according to several experts featured in a new RTE documentary, Will Ireland Survive 2050?, which takes a closer look at the potential impact of increasingly extreme weather patterns in Ireland.
It’s an impact that some experts have warned could see “Armageddon weather scenarios” play out over the course of the next few decades.
Dr Barry O’Dwyer, from the Marine and Renewable Energy Research, Development and Innovation Centre, is predicting significant in temperatures and sea levels around Ireland’s coastal areas.
“In terms of sea level rise, by 2050 we’re probably looking in the region of 40 cm to 50 cm,” he said.
“Internationally, the expert body on this is the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change and they’re projecting for 2100 an increase of 80 cm.
“In the case of a city like Cork it is very significant when we look at the quay walls and we see what would 80 cm mean in terms of coastal flooding in the city.
“In addition, we have to think about the increase in frequency of intense precipitation events, you can imagine we will have increased levels of water coming down the (River) Lee and on top of that we will have a sea level rise plus a storm surge."
Dr O’Dwyer also warned that extreme weather events are also likely to become more commonplace if global warming continues at the current rate.
“A one in 100 year event will become a one in 20 year event, maybe a one in 10 year event maybe on a yearly basis.”
Gerard Fleming, a senior consultant at the World Meteorological Organisation and the World Bank, echoed those concerns, predicting “more floods, more drought and more prolonged cold snaps”.
The documentary sees him visit Greenland to witness, first-hand, the record-breaking rate at which the ice-caps are melting, resulting in significant rises in sea levels.
“We’re losing more ice through melting than we are gaining with snowfall. It’s scary. It’s nature in action,” he said.
“The accelerated rate at which they are melting will have a devastating impact on weather in Ireland, it’s already happening, extreme weather events are increasing in strength, frequency and intensity.”
Dr Ger McCarthy, from the Department of Geography, at NUI Maynooth is keen to stress knock-on effect of Greenland melting ice caps on the Gulf Stream and, consequently, Ireland.
At present, the Gulf Stream currents plays a key role in keeping Ireland significantly warmer than the rest of Northern Europe despite the country’s geographical position far away from the equator.
These currents bring warm Atlantic water northwards towards the pole, where they cool, sink and then return southwards.
They represent the most significant control on northern hemisphere climate outside the atmosphere.
However, this system has weakened by 15% since 1950, due to the continued melting of ice in Greenland and ocean warming, which is making sea water less dense and more buoyant.
Dr McCarthy warned: “If the Gulf Stream shut down completely we might expect an eight degree cooling around Ireland, that’s transforming the climate of Ireland into the climate of Iceland.
“We don’t think it is a likely scenario, what we think is a very likely to happen is that the gulf stream system is going to slow down, we expect that to happen by about 30% by 2050.”
Met Eireann’s Head of Climatology and Observations, Seamus Walsh echoed many of these concerns, highlighting the accelerated rate of temperature rises, which are likely to bring more extreme weather issues.
“Since 1900 we have seen a temperature rise by about one degree (Celsius) and it looks like we are looking at another one to one and half degrees increase in mean temperature by the middle of the century,” Walsh said.
“This could mean an increase in maximum summer temperatures of about three degrees Celsius.
“We are looking at maybe more extremes in very wet days, these are day with more than 30 mm of rain especially in winter time which could cause problems for flooding.
“As regards winds it looks like we will see fewer storms in the big sense but some of the storms which do occur could be even more severe than what has been happening.”
The documentary claims carbon emissions are now higher than have been in the past 400,000 years.
The experts featured are calling for immediate action to help reduce emissions and tackle climate change.
Will Ireland Survive 2050? will be shown on RTE One on Monday 11th November, at 9.35pm. Read RTE’s full report here.
See More: Global Warming, Ice Caps
