ON A knife edge. A toss-up. A 50/50 proposition. Impossible to call. These monikers are employed routinely to describe where we are in the race to be the 47th President of the United States. And they accurately convey just how tight this fight is, at least according to the aggregated polling data.
The RealClearPolitics.com website, a superb resource for anyone interested in American politics, indicates that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in a dead heat. At the hour of writing, Trump has tiny leads in all of the seven battlegrounds that will dictate who the next occupant of the White House will be. He appears to be in a slightly superior position.
When Harris replaced her faltering boss, President Joe Biden, she did so to the delight of progressives who were less than enthused about Biden’s re-election bid and were staring down the barrel of a landslide Electoral College defeat on November 5th. She raised an enormous amount of money and inspired thousands of people to enlist as volunteers for her throughout the US. She surged in the opinion surveys and was bolstered by a successful Democratic National Convention.
Unfortunately, the momentum she and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, owned seems to have stalled. Her poll figures have receded and Democratic strategists are reportedly voicing serious worries in private. Notwithstanding Trump’s bizarre bobbing and weaving to a litany of his favourite songs and paying homage to golfing legend Arnold Palmer’s genitalia on stages at his fabled rallies, he remains the choice of tens of millions of Americans.
At this late stage, were I advising the two candidates, my focus would be on crafting a convincing closing argument. In Trump’s case, it boils down to asking the citizenry a simple question. “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” A clear majority of Americans answer no, resoundingly. Whether owing to the drastic rise in the price of consumer goods, despite an easing of inflation recently, or their perception that far too many immigrants have crossed the southern border on the watch of the Biden/Harris administration, they are angry and despondent. And they blame the two Democrats.
Harris, on the other hand, must point to the dangers posed to her country and to the world by a second Trump presidency in which he would be unencumbered by any electoral concerns and surrounded not by experts. Instead, there would be sycophants whose sole qualification for their high-powered posts will be a willingness to obey the New York billionaire’s orders, no matter what. She need only refer to the things he has said and continues to say to demonstrate how genuine and profound a threat he represents.
Which of these narratives that will reverberate in the public mind, regardless of how central they are in the messaging of the two aspirants, proves more persuasive may be dispositive in a contest that will ultimately be decided by a very small sliver of floating and first time voters. I will consider the implications of the outcome for the land of my birth and the rest of the planet – with a specific emphasis on the impact on Ireland – in December’s column.
Sinn Féin’s struggles and Fine Gael’s resurgence
IN IRELAND after a protracted period of speculation that has consumed the commentariat, we do know that a general election will occur imminently. A beleaguered Sinn Féin has been further wounded by revelations of grossly inappropriate text messages that were sent by ex- Senator Niall Ó Donnghaile, letters of reference from its officials on behalf of a convicted child sex offender, Michael McMonagle, and the sudden resignations of TDs Patricia Ryan and Brian Stanley – the latter in a cloud of controversy.
Damage limitation is probably the party’s principal aim on this occasion, even if it will seek to regain a portion of its working class base by alleging that the “establishment” is shamelessly and unfairly attacking a united Ireland movement they disdain. Fine Gael is benefitting tremendously from the bounce precipitated by An Taoiseach Simon Harris’s taking the reins. The indefatigable young man from Greystones, Co. Wicklow is hugely popular and “Brand Harris” will be to the fore in the coming weeks. FG activists are quietly confident of a strong showing.
Without making firm predictions, I’ll venture a few educated guesses as to what might happen. First, Fianna Fáil, who polls typically underestimate, will fare better than observers believe. A large and growing cohort no longer discern any difference between FF and FG. But half of FG’s sitting TDs are not running and, in some instances, their substitutions are not particularly well known. FF incumbents could see their first preference totals swell to FG’s detriment due to greater name recognition and familiarity.
Second is that Labour and the Social Democrats – perhaps the Greens as well with a bit of luck and environmentally alert forbearance – should profit from the support of left-leaning, youngish women and men who had been drawn toward Sinn Féin, primarily because of Eoin Ó Broin’s effective advocacy and detailed policy proposals on the housing crisis. That flirtation ended when the topic of immigration emerged and his party pivoted away from its liberal values to slow the drift of its working class base to the extreme right.
This consequently disaffected, loose grouping could head in diffuse directions. They are unlikely, though, to gravitate to what many of them pejoratively label “FFG” or to Independents. Their votes could be crucial to how the dust eventually settles and potentially to the composition of a new governing coalition.
Lastly, the number of ideologically and geographically diverse Independents will increase. How many of them will get into bed with FF/FG, which are practically guaranteed to be back in government? The variables are aplenty.
Half century for me, Larry Óg hits 12
MY SON, Larry Óg, will soon turn 12. My wife, who he has already surpassed in height, and I can’t fathom that our formerly little baby boy is on the cusp of becoming a teenager. My relationship with him, dominated as it is by incessant banter and slagging at our cherished Wicklow Golf Club and elsewhere, is very, very special to us both. I am more his crazy big brother than his Dad a lot of the time. The years are zipping by at the speed of light, however. I often wish I could press pause.
My wife is fond of noting that young Larry isn’t getting older alone in this house. That stark reality is hitting me hard because I will be 50 on the 18th of this month. I remember when my own father made it to his fifth decade and I recall thinking: “He’s so old.” I don’t feel 50, but the calendar doesn’t lie. Anyway, I am looking forward to a celebratory weekend in Edinburgh. I don’t love ageing, yet one thing is for sure: it beats the alternative. And maybe 50 is the new 30…
Larry Donnelly is a Boston born and educated attorney, a Law Lecturer at the University of Galway and a regular media contributor on politics, current affairs and law in Ireland and the US. He will be a featured analyst on RTÉ’s US election night coverage across television and radio. Twitter/X: @LarryPDonnelly
Larry Donnelly