DANIEL MULHALL former Irish Ambassador who served in Washington DC from 2017-2022, and in London from 2013-2017 gives the current state of play in the race to the White House
WITH the Harris-Trump debate now behind us, where does the race for the US Presidency go from here? By adroitly exploiting her opponent’s vulnerabilities, exacerbated by an evident lack of debate preparation on his part, Kamala Harris clearly won the debate and will probably get a small boost in the polls. The fact remains though that America is deeply divided in its politics and there are relatively few genuinely undecideds there for the taking. Those hard-to-please voters with a limited interest in politics only tune in to the election, if at all, when voting day is nigh. How to reach them and win them over is the puzzle both campaigns need to crack between now and November 5th.
Donald Trump’s tendency to burrow down bizarre rabbit holes (in this latest case chasing eaten cats and dogs), disguises the fact that, though he may be overweight and have a dodgy diet, he has shown himself to be a formidable political athlete. Those viewing US politics from outside who laugh at his excesses may find this hard to credit, but just weeks to go before the November vote Trump cannot be discounted. His track record is imposing.
With no relevant experience, Trump came from nowhere to clinch the 2016 election. In doing so, he bested a clutch of formidable-looking Republican candidates, none of whom could withstand the Trump whirlwind. Although his tenure at the White House was an unruly one, he recorded a significant increase in his vote at the 2020 election. Despite his refusal to accept defeat and the fact that he unleashed the unparalleled events of January 6th 2021, Trump has retained his vice-like hold on the Republican Party. That is a feat without precedent.
When Jimmy Carter lost his bid for re-election in 1980, although he was still in his fifties there was no suggestion that he could make a comeback. Likewise, when George Bush Snr lost to Bill Clinton in 1992, his political career came to a quick end. You need to go back to the ‘60s to find a candidate given a second chance after an electoral defeat as Nixon was in 1968. That puts Donald Trump’s durability into perspective. In this year’s primaries, he swatted aside two seemingly strong candidates in Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, both successful State Governors. The only conclusion that can be drawn is that Trump is the leader of a movement that does not abide by the normal rules of electoral politics.
Joe Biden was never able to create the sense that he had a committed fanbase. In 2020, he skillfully capitalised on a deep well of opposition to Trump’s politics, which enabled him to win the election as the ‘anyone-but-Trump’ candidate. As this year’s election loomed, many who had voted for him in 2020 were preoccupied with his age and fading faculties, and demoralised by what they viewed as his inability to defeat Trump.
Kamala Harris has energised Democrats and created a movement of her own, with full arenas and a surge of passionate enthusiasm for her candidacy. After the debate, she is on a high, but crowd size at rallies and sparky debate performance do not win elections. Harris still has many hurdles to jump. Voters continue to look for greater clarity about her intentions should she win in November. The remaining weeks will be a hard grind and Republicans will throw the equivalent of the kitchen sink at her. She will have to undergo interrogation in media interviews where any slip-up will be magnified by her opponents. The record of the Biden Administration is actually quite a positive one, but that’s not how lots of Americans see it. Biden tends to get the blame for rising prices which seem to impact more heavily on US voters than they do in Europe. Americans are wont to notice the price of petrol at the pump and make little or no allowance for the international situation that has driven up oil prices. Harris needs to avoid having the perceived failings of the administration pinned on her.
Harris has played it safe since she became the Democrat candidate, tacking quietly to the centre ground. By contrast, her opponent seems incapable of executing a middle-ground strategy, because he believes his established playbook will deliver for him again. He’s an instinctive political operator and that could be his downfall, for Trump is no longer the insurgent novelty he was in 2016 or the swaggering candidate of 2020 vintage. Though still formidable and with a fiercely loyal base, he seems a little like a tribute act for his former self. Up against Harris, he is now the old stager, and that could be his waterloo if his rival can paint a convincing picture of a better future for hard-pressed Americans, and how it can be achieved.
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