Daniel Mulhall, former Irish Ambassador to the US, reads the runes as the race to the White House enters its final stages
WITH the Vice-Presidential debate now behind us — which Vance clearly won, but Walz may still be the better candidate with his appeal to middle America — the US election has entered its home straight and the level of international interest in its outcome is spiralling. That’s understandable because what happens in the US affects the rest of the world. America remains an indispensable power across the world, even if it may be in slow decline, its primacy now under an increasing challenge from the rise of China as a force in geopolitics.
If Europeans had a vote in next month’s election, Kamala Harris would win comprehensively as her politics and personality are closer to the European norm than those of her opponent. Americans, of course, have no reason to give much of a hoot about how Europeans and others view the rival candidates. They will weigh them up against their own interests, which may be doggedly parochial in many cases.
The campaign so far has revolved around the surge of enthusiasm for Kamala Harris since she replaced Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket. The Harris bandwagon has bumped up against public dissatisfaction with the record of what Republicans now routinely call the Biden-Harris Administration.
International issues have had only limited air-time, but that is not unusual, in America or elsewhere in the world. But what is the potential impact of the election for Europe – and, in particular for Ireland, which has enjoyed a privileged relationship with the Biden presidency that peaked during his rapturous visit last year?
Some things will not change whether it’s a Harris or a Trump Presidency. Both sides of American politics, who agree on little else, are wary about the rise of China as a global power. Trump imposed tariffs on some Chinese imports, and those have been retained by Biden. The dilemma for Europeans is how to preserve a cooperative relationship with China without jeopardising its special ties with the US which will continue to be of paramount importance.
The US tends to adopt a ‘with us or against us’ posture when it comes to what it perceives as the threat posed by China. That will remain the case regardless of who wins the November election.
‘America First’ is an economic stance shared by Democrats and Republicans. It aims at a reshoring of industrial production as an antidote to the perceived vulnerability of sensitive supply lines. That could potentially discourage US firms from investing overseas although the track record of US businesses in Ireland is such that we are unlikely to be directly targeted by the US, which may continue to regard us as a safe economic partner.
There are two fault lines between the Trump and Harris campaigns’ international policies. First, Trump, who tends to view trade in adversarial terms, has threatened to impose a 10% tariff on all imports. If that were to happen, it would be especially worrisome for Ireland considering the extent of our trade with the USA. The EU would probably feel obliged to impose retaliatory tariffs on US imports into Europe. The UK might decide to do likewise. That would be damaging for economies on both sides of the Atlantic and for global trade, which is why the vast bulk of economists regard an across-the-board imposition of tariffs as a crude device.
The second issue that troubles European governments is the implications of the US election for the war in Ukraine, which has become a bit of a hot potato in US politics. Donald Trump and those around him are at best ambivalent about Ukraine. He brags that he would end the conflict in a day. While he has not specified how he would do so, it is widely presumed that he would offer Vladimir Putin a favourable deal and strong arm Zelensky into accepting it by threatening to pull US military aid. That would present Europeans with a dilemma. Would they seek to plug the gap caused by a withdrawal of US support and could they do so effectively?
There is a risk that the US turning its back on Ukraine could damage morale among those who have so valiantly battled Russia since the invasion in February 2022.
The prospect of a Russian victory in Ukraine could prompt a further outflow of people seeking safety in the EU with predictable consequences from already overstretched receiving countries, including Ireland.
How to manage the prospect of a Trump victory? Of course, he may not carry through with all of his plans, but it would be unsafe to ignore what he has threatened to do.
I am sure that European governments are already making contingency plans, reaching out to the Trump camp to make contacts and build understanding there of European concerns. For example, Keir Starmer met with Donald Trump during a recent visit, as did President Zelensky although, judging by their surreal joint appearance before the media it must have been an excruciating experience for Zelensky.
No doubt EU leaders will make a beeline for the White House in early 2025 no matter who’s at the helm there at that time. One of the EU’s problems is that its traditional big hitters, Germany and France, are led by weakened figures, Scholz and Macron.
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen may have to be Europe’s champion advocate. It will be interesting to see how that works out, although I do recall former Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker striking up an unlikely rapport with Trump during his time in the White House. And, depending on the outcome of the coming Irish and American elections, there is the prospect on St Patrick’s Day 2025 of a (Simon) Harris-Harris or a Harris-Trump encounter, both of which would ring a bell!
Daniel Mulhall is a former Irish Ambassador in Washington, whose most recent publication is Pilgrim Soul: W.B. Yeats and the Ireland of his Time (New Island Books, 2023).
