A popular move domestically, Ireland’s Middle East policy has put a strain US-Ireland relations, risking economic and political fallout. LARRY DONNELLY reports
ALTHOUGH it had been in the works for months, the announcement by An Taoiseach and leader of Fine Gael Simon Harris that Ireland, together with Spain and Norway, will recognise the state of Palestine and join the vast majority of nations in so doing, was provocative nonetheless, given the dastardly deeds of Hamas on October 7th and the grossly disproportionate reaction of Israel’s military in Gaza.
Reeling from the issuance by the International Criminal Court of an arrest warrant for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli officials were incandescent.
The foreign minister argued that it sends a signal that “terrorism pays,” has warned of dire consequences for Ireland and instantly recalled Dana Erlich, Israel’s ambassador in Dublin. Furthermore, he shared a video on social media emblazoned “Hamas Thanks Ireland”, depicting the terrorist organisation’s fighters carrying out manoeuvres to the tune of Irish music.
It was a bizarre and distressing cheap shot by a diplomat, yet indicative of the depth of anger there.
Across the Atlantic, Republicans staunchly allied to Israel were similarly appalled. A Florida legislator is filing a bill to add Ireland to its list of “scrutinised countries”, which would make it harder for Irish citizens to enter the state and restrict Irish businesses from trading there.
Donald Trump’s former chief of staff and Northern Ireland envoy, Mick Mulvaney, proffered on Irish radio that the government’s move could imperil the annual shamrock ceremony in the White House and the lunch with congressional leaders on Capitol Hill for St. Patrick’s Day. Others suggest it could jeopardise investment in Ireland by US corporations.
My own view is that these suppositions – which could be equally characterised as furious retorts or genuine fears, depending on from whence they emanate – are wide of the mark. There is an awareness in the upper echelons of politics and government that the US and Ireland are never going to agree on the Middle East and that it is not worth jeopardising a mutually beneficial friendship. That said, it would be wrong to presume that the government’s forthright posturing on Palestinian statehood is without risk.
In one sense, Simon Harris, as well as his coalition colleagues in Fianna Fáil and the Green Party, deserves credit for using the pulpit Ireland has as a jurisdiction that punches above its weight around the globe to take a stand for what he considers to be just. In another, looked at through a political lens, the fact is that the overwhelming majority in Ireland back the Palestinian cause. Recognition of statehood might offer the three parties a small boost in the face of criticism from the left on this front with local and European elections looming on the horizon.
A possible upset in the European elections
ON June 7, a relatively novel issue will be in the minds of a substantial swathe of the citizenry in Ireland: immigration. The arrival of more than 100,000 Ukrainians and a significant number of international protection seekers in the context of a pre-existing, severe housing crisis has catapulted this political hot potato onto the agenda for the first time in Ireland. The opinion surveys reveal that most believe that the country has accepted too many newcomers, too quickly.
As a consequence, the largest parties, while remaining broadly pro-immigration, have shifted, both in policy and in rhetoric, rightward on the topic. Politicians from Sinn Féin, which has seen its support fall as elements of its working class base have gravitated toward independent and fledgling party contenders whose messaging is generally anti-immigration, have been all over the shop on this subject, to put it bluntly.
There is little doubt that aspirants appealing to concerns – some of which are entirely legitimate, others of which are sadly rooted in bigotry – about immigration will be elected to city and county councils. The question is whether any of the similarly minded hopefuls running for the European Parliament will surprise. One to watch is Niall Boylan, who is attempting to take one of the four seats in the Dublin constituency.
Boylan, a radio talk show host with a dedicated listenership and a very high profile, is contesting the race under the banner of the recently formed Independent Ireland. It identifies as “the party of common sense, the clear choice for real change” and its de facto head is Roscommon-Galway TD Michael Fitzmaurice, a shrewd political operator. Boylan has made opposition to the government’s handling of immigration a central component of his bid.
An Irish Times poll has him lagging behind with merely 5% of respondents saying that they intend to give the “shock jock” their first preference.
My hunch, however, is that figure is low; I suspect there are some who are reticent to admit they are with the controversial Boylan.
If he does get a greater proportion of firsts and is thus in the frame, he will then need the lion’s share of transfers from the ragtag band of lesser known anti-immigration longshots on the ballot, as well as whatever may be on offer from voters who opt initially for government party and Sinn Féin candidates. In short, I think he has an outside chance of pulling off an upset.
Who’ll be Trump’s no. 2?
AS THE Republican National Convention scheduled for mid-July in Milwaukee, Wisconsin rapidly approaches, speculation as to who Donald Trump will select as his number two is heating up.
Many analysts regard South Carolina Senator Tim Scott as the favourite. And he certainly ticks some key boxes. He is loyal to the point of sycophancy. Indeed, his praise for the objectively ethically challenged billionaire has been disturbingly gushing. He is an African American and Trump choosing Scott would help cement the truly extraordinary surge in popularity he is enjoying among people of colour.
US Senators Marco Rubio and JD Vance, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik and ex-Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard are also rumoured to be in the mix. It is noteworthy that Trump’s rival for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, Nikki Haley, who served as his US Ambassador to the United Nations and was Governor of South Carolina, has just endorsed the man who nicknamed her “Birdbrain” and who was enraged by her refusal to end her campaign at an earlier juncture.
For myriad reasons, Haley would be the best pick Trump could make. It has seemed, and it is still, farfetched that he could see beyond his hatred for the proud Indian American and give her the nod. Trump desperately wants to defeat Joe Biden, though, and I wonder if his family and closest advisers could appeal to him on the basis that Haley would boost his odds of doing so. Again, it’s unlikely. But I can’t fully extinguish the funny feeling I have. And remember that stranger things have happened in politics.
Larry Donnelly is a Boston attorney, a Law Lecturer at the University of Galway and a regular media contributor on politics, current affairs and law in Ireland and the US. @LarryPDonnelly
