IT WAS in the wee hours of Wednesday, November 6, in a conference room adjacent to a television studio in RTÉ, when it dawned on me and a fellow panellist on the national broadcaster’s overnight television coverage that Donald Trump would vanquish Kamala Harris and become the 47th President of the United States.
In short, the data we were processing as it was disseminated online revealed that he was more than holding his own in the crucial territories in the key battlegrounds and she was significantly underperforming what Joe Biden managed in 2020.
It wasn’t massively surprising in one sense. Still, it was shocking in another. In light of all that we know about the bombastic billionaire, how is it that Americans could want him as their commander-in-chief?
There has been no small amount of conjecture as to why – I’ll indulge in some imminently – but Chris Kofinis, the former chief-of staff to the centrist Democratic turned Independent US Senator from West Virginia, Joe Manchin, arguably put it best in his succinct summation.
“Trump is not the disease. He is the symptom. The disease is cultural, political and economic elites who keep telling the public what they should think, feel and believe – and guess what they told them on Tuesday [Election Day]: Go to hell.”
US President-elect Donald Trump, singer Kid Rock and Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk posed for a photo as they attended a UFC event at Madison Square Garden in New York this weekThere is no doubt that tens of millions of women and men deliberately sent precisely that message when they cast their ballots.
There are a few unassailable micro-truths that help explain what happened.
President Biden persisted in his quest for a second term for way too long.
Harris herself was a weak substitute nominee and her choice of running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, was even worse.
Trump started with a substantial edge, given the Biden/Harris administration’s deep unpopularity stemming from the blame allocated to the Democrats for their handling of inflation and immigration, the two biggest issues for a clear majority.
At a macro-level, the result again reflected that the lurch to the left on the “culture wars” by the party once identified, first and foremost, as the home of Americans who work with their hands and live paycheque to paycheque has been politically disadvantageous.
This is especially the case in presidential races, owing to the electoral college system and what its critics allege is the disproportionately large say accorded to the residents of the vast and amorphous “Middle America.”
The exit survey figures released by Blueprint, a Democratic polling firm, are stark in this regard.
Of swing voters who ultimately opted for Trump, 83% believe that Harris wants to use taxpayer dollars to fund gender reassignment surgery for imprisoned illegal immigrants; 76% think Harris would allow abortion until the day or birth; 72% claim that she favours defunding the police; and 67% are of the view that she would award Black Americans reparations for slavery.
Obviously, these are just perceptions and those on the left in the US would vigorously dispute them. But in politics, perception matters infinitely more than reality.
Hence, might Democrats engage seriously in a soul-searching exercise as to why so many – above all, the white working class and, increasingly, Latinos – deem their values out of step in what remains a fundamentally conservative country, particularly in the areas where these contests are decided?
The chances are extremely slim. For if they did, the militantly progressive activists, who, for some strange reason, wield enormous, counterproductive influence over prominent Democrats, would warn of angering core constituencies and, more importantly, well-heeled donors. Crazy stuff.
It’s a sizeable factor as to why Donald Trump pulled off an astonishing feat and is currently picking a bevy of unqualified individuals – including a few objectively despicable characters, such as the US Attorney General in waiting, Matt Gaetz – who’ll do his bidding unthinkingly for the four years looming ahead.
Exactly how much of a threat the second Trump presidency poses to Ireland is appropriately the subject of considerable attention at this juncture.
Trump is an unrepentant America Firster and he is principally animated by two things. One is his own ego and enrichment.
The other is a profoundly held conviction that the US gets screwed on the world stage by its enemies and allies alike. And his putative commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, has this island in his sights: “It’s nonsense that Ireland of all places runs a trade surplus at our expense,” he has opined.
Addressing the myriad challenges on this front will require indefatigable, concerted efforts from government ministers and diplomats, as well as those here and in the US who thrive on our mutually beneficial business, cultural and further ties.
I have a humble, “outside the box” suggestion. It is accompanied by the provisos that Ireland’s ambassador, Geraldine Byrne Nason, is an exceptionally talented person and that the entire Department of Foreign Affairs is formidable
That said, because the stakes are so high, I wonder if either or both of the two former Taoisigh, Bertie Ahern and Enda Kenny, would assume formal and/or informal roles in this complicated period for the US-Ireland relationship.
There is no better negotiator on the planet than Ahern. He commands tremendous respect internationally.
Kenny is skilful. He instinctively understands America and Americans, and they are fond of him. Possibly worth investigating if Bertie and/or Enda could be persuaded…?
The Irish general election
The Irish general election is next on Friday, November 29.
The campaign to date has been fairly ho-hum. There hasn’t been a memorable moment.
Barring something unforeseeable, it seems as if Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will be the forces in the next government, unless the polls are dead wrong.
Sinn Féin may have arrested its decline, yet it will probably remain in opposition. The goings-on are nonetheless fascinating to those of us obsessed with politics.
But beyond the usual jockeying for position among the leaders on the airwaves and the candidates on the ground in their localities, there is a notable, though hardly novel, division materialising within the Irish people and manifested in media interviews of young, and plenty of not so young, voters.
That is between those fortunate enough to own their homes and those striving to put a foot on the property ladder.
Hearing the stories of educated women and men in good jobs who despair that they haven’t a hope of obtaining a mortgage in the near future is deeply saddening.
Equally, most are totally unconvinced that the politicians seeking their support on this occasion can ameliorate their plight. Many cite the number of their contemporaries who have emigrated and fear that they similarly have no choice. They’ll need to follow them, and to leave behind the family members and communities they dearly love.
That already exorbitant housing prices went up a whopping 10% during the last twelve months is an extra devastating blow.
It’s a desperate situation. I do trust that there is nary an aspirant standing in this general election who isn’t moved by their struggle and doesn’t want to assist them.
I only wish there was a plausible, comprehensive solution on the horizon to this evidently intractable problem.
Larry Donnelly is a Boston-born and educated attorney, a Law Lecturer at the University of Galway and a regular media contributor on politics, current affairs and law in Ireland and the US. Twitter/X: @LarryPDonnelly
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