DONALD Trump is flailing. Kamala Harris is flying. The Democratic National Convention (DNC) has been a tremendous success thus far for Harris, her running mate, Tim Walz, and their party more generally.
What a momentous summer month this has been. To paraphrase Ferris Bueller: politics moves pretty fast; if you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.
In July, Trump appeared a dead cert to return to the oval office, as a failed attempt on his life only made him stronger and panicked Democrats sought to depose a diminished, yet implacably determined, President Joe Biden. Well, on the first night of the DNC, Biden, who is reportedly furious with former Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi, the Obamas and other dignitaries for their manoeuvres to shove him overboard, put on a brave face and, after delineating his administration’s achievements, exclaimed an enthusiastic endorsement of his vice president.
Convention orators were of the past and the future. Hillary Clinton delivered what was, in my estimation, one of her best speeches. The Obamas demonstrated that they still have it and invigorated the crowd in the arena in Chicago and throughout the United States with a message of hope. A host of up and coming, articulate, capable and diverse individuals shone and raised their profiles as they bolstered the top of the ticket.
At least at the halfway mark, protesters aggrieved by the Biden/Harris policy in the Middle East hadn’t proved much of a disruptive force. The truth is that, even though they are justifiably dismayed that the US has continued to support Israel as it wages a disproportionate and horrific war on the Palestinian people, Trump and his number two, JD Vance, would be infinitely worse from their point of view than Harris/Walz.
Again, wish to the contrary as Europeans might, the overwhelming majority of Americans simply don’t perceive events in Gaza as they are seen here. Most are alternatively indifferent, unaware or unrepentantly pro-Israel. Like it or not, that is the realpolitik of the matter.
The aggregated polling data indicates that Harris has either drawn considerably tighter to or surpassed Trump in the crucial battleground states. Contemporaneously, the bombastic billionaire has lost his footing. Trump was convinced that he would only have to defeat an incumbent who is clearly in decline. He is manifestly incandescent that a relatively young, energetic, accomplished woman of colour is now his foe.
Given his undeniable penchant for nastiness, Trump has been lashing out at her personally – calling Kamala Harris a lunatic and a communist, asserting that he is better looking than her. This will not suffice and, while his base laughs and cheers along with his blather, the floating voters who he needs onside in order to prevail in November will roll their eyes and change the channel.
There is a sense of “Trump fatigue” in the air. A not insignificant swathe of the citizenry doesn’t revere the principles that the Democratic Party purports to stand for, yet is tired of Trump’s antics and wary of the chaos that his second presidency could devolve into. A “Hollywoodesque” video shown to delegates in the Windy City, which casts the contest as one between a career prosecutor and a career criminal, suggests that Harris/Walz will seek to capitalise on that sentiment.
So, in this milieu, is there any way for Trump to right the ship? The answer is yes. And his close advisers must be exasperated that he has fallen unnecessarily into a rut. There is a quite straightforward three part formula. He must bang the drum incessantly on each component thereof until November 5th.
First, he should ask Americans if they are content with paying exorbitantly higher prices for nearly everything than they did just a few years ago. Second, he should enquire if they are happy with the amount of foreigners entering the country illegally via the southern border. For repeated opinion surveys reflect that inflation and immigration – deep-seated fears about both, that is – are the two biggest issues currently. Lots of people across the ideological spectrum are consequently angry with Biden/Harris.
Third, he should argue that Kamala Harris is a radical San Francisco leftist who does not share the values of women and men in that vast and amorphous entity described as Middle America that the path to Electoral College victory traverses. Her and Walz’s prior pronouncements can be used to devastating effect on this front.
Further, by emphasising the fact that Planned Parenthood set up a mobile clinic at the DNC offering free vasectomies and abortions, Trump can help blunt a political negative: the widespread opposition to the reversal of Roe v Wade. Yes, abortion is complicated and it’s something you might disagree with me on, but the liberal extremist Democrats in Chicago lead and/or condone lifestyles that are totally divergent to those of ordinary Americans, he could say.
Whether Trump can cease self-destructing and get back to these basics is one of the key questions remaining in this campaign. Another is how Kamala Harris will respond when the glare is on her. She will be scrutinised rigorously by the media and will be criticised relentlessly by the Republicans. Plenty of the latter grouping think she is a lightweight and isn’t up to being the commander-in-chief. We will soon find out. There is no shortage of dramatic twists and turns ahead.
Props to RTÉ
The latest Joint National Listenership Research (JNLR) figures reveal that radio in Ireland, perhaps to an extent greater than anywhere else, is a hugely important medium. Some 80% of adults in the Republic, approximately 3.4 million, tune into national, regional and local Irish radio outlets daily. That is an objectively amazing statistic. And I know that countless more in the Irish diaspora around the world keep abreast of political, sporting and additional developments at home by listening to Irish radio stations on their computers, smartphones and an array of devices.
I have the immense privilege of commenting frequently on Irish radio and am invariably in awe of the talent and commitment of those who work in it. Presenters, producers, researchers, sound/tech personnel, etc. are almost uniformly excellent and take enormous pride in what they do. It is no wonder, then, that Irish radio is the soundtrack to so many of our lives in 2024, despite the myriad other options we have. Here’s to the wireless!
Larry Donnelly is a Boston born and educated attorney, a Law Lecturer at the University of Galway and a regular media contributor on politics, current affairs and law in Ireland and the US. Twitter/X: @LarryPDonnelly
