THOSE who write opinion columns might not belong to a disadvantaged class, but consumers of news should have a degree of sympathy for us as we endeavour to process and analyse the rapid-fire, radical pronouncements and initiatives emerging from Donald Trump’s White House. What’s insightful one minute is invariably soon dated and, in some instances, rendered a nonsense.
In mere weeks, President Trump has, among other things, sought to wholly redefine the traditional transatlantic alliance and taken a chainsaw to the federal government of the United States with the aid and encouragement of his malevolent associate, Elon Musk.
Many wondered aloud whether Trump was serious about an agenda he made no secret of during the campaign or if his was actually a quest to right the wrong that he feels was done to him in 2020 and that he would spend much of “Trump 2.0” on the golf course. The international community now knows the answer.
In light of President Trump’s objectively wide-reaching and extreme words and deeds, it is remarkable that aggregated polling on RealClearPolitics.com shows that virtually half of the American people continue to approve of his job performance. There is an extraordinary dissonance between how he is seen at home and how he is viewed most everywhere else, save perhaps Israel.
Of course, owing both to precedent when it comes to second term presidents and to the deleterious consequences of Trump’s policies that may be experienced harshly by tens of millions in the US, it is probable that his numbers will decline, potentially precipitously.
Time will tell on that one. An equally noteworthy figure in a just released Harvard/Harris survey is that a paltry 36% support the Democrats. The party is undoubtedly in a difficult position; its stalwarts cannot fathom that they were defeated by a convicted felon, a man temperamentally unsuited to the office he holds. At present, they are struggling to develop a cogent strategy of how to oppose the commander-in-chief. Simultaneously, it is impossible to identify who is the face of the push-back against Donald Trump.
Some, including seasoned operative James Carville, proffer that it is best to let the president spin himself out – that he cannot maintain this breakneck pace, that the measures he is implementing will harm him and the Republicans politically and that Democrats will be well-situated to pick up the pieces. There may be merit to it, but how tenable is standing by while “all hell breaks loose”, in Trump’s own words? This tack would also incense an increasingly angry progressive wing.
There don’t appear to be any solutions that would garner sufficient buy-in on the horizon. One prominent Democrat, however, who has spoken and written provocatively on how his party has lost touch with Middle America, young males, Hispanics and other vital constituencies is former Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan. He argues that the party’s drift to corporatist economics and its embrace of the cultural values of Manhattan and San Francisco have been damaging. He is 100% correct.
Ryan’s is a cautionary tale of where Democrats went astray. At the outset of his tenure in the US House of Representatives, the ex-staffer for the legendary Congressman, Jim Traficant, was an unrepentant populist. Ryan scorned so-called free trade deals that punished the blue collar women and men who sent him to Washington, DC and was a moderate on social issues – not on the same page as the House leadership on these important fronts.
First as he promoted a quixotic bid for the Democratic presidential nomination and then as he pursued a seat in the US Senate, Ryan moved left. He may assert that his shift was heartfelt, but the realpolitik is that he had to. There is no way he could have won a primary if he hadn’t. Regrettably, that significantly narrowed his path to victory in the general election in his newly red state. Ryan fell short in a close race, 53% to 47%, in 2022.
And who vanquished him? JD Vance, the sitting vice president, and – no matter one’s estimation of the Hillbilly Elegy author’s character – an eloquent, intelligent defender of Trumpism. It obviously would have been nice for Democrats to kill off Vance’s ambitions at an earlier stage. The more centrist, previous version of Tim Ryan might have been the guy for the job.
Will the elitist-oriented liberals who dominate get to grips with the awkward political truths that are manifest in this far from unique case study as they plot their party’s recovery? Not a chance.
The race to the Áras is well underway
IN IRELAND, while parties and independents bicker boringly over speaking slots in the Dáil, the gossip has begun in earnest as to who will seek to replace Michael D Higgins in Áras an Uachtaráin this October. For Fine Gael, a trio of accomplished women – former European Commissioner Mairead McGuinness, ex-Tánaiste Frances Fitzgerald and recently retired Minister Frances Fitzgerald – are said to be interested. Little has emanated from Fianna Fáil circles, though Bertie Ahern, one of the architects of the Good Friday Agreement and Taoiseach from 1997-2008, refuses to dismiss rumours that he will chase a nomination.
And her allies claim that MEP Cynthia Ní Mhurchú would be formidable.
Sinn Féin’s intentions in this regard are a mystery. But there has been a lot of talk that the “soft left” parties will unite around an agreed runner. Senator Frances Black, Catherine Connolly TD and Irish Times columnist Fintan O’Toole are three being mooted. Additionally, some on the right hope that Senator Michael McDowell throws his hat in the ring to give them a palatable option.
Presidential elections in Ireland are a different kettle of fish altogether. They can be nasty and very personal. Aspirants have to accept that they will be subjected to rigorous scrutiny in traditional and social media. Without dismissing the odds of any of those in the hypothetical mix at the moment, my guess is that whoever of McGuinness, Fitzgerald or Humphreys – and my suspicion is that it will be McGuinness – ultimately is anointed the Fine Gael standard bearer will be in reasonable shape to become her party’s first ever president.
Yet there is a school of thought to the effect that the popular incumbent’s successor will be an individual who is not today featuring on insiders’ collective radar screen. That could be. I will only venture that it is not Conor McGregor. At any rate, a sure to be intriguing contest lies ahead.
Galway, New York, Edinburgh — axis of alcoholic extortion
THESE are not celebratory days for drinkers who, like me, vastly prefer to imbibe at a public house than at home. Wherever I go, the cost of a pint is extortionate and it is getting worse. Here in Ireland, there have been four price rises in the past two years. Whatever about being ripped off in Dublin, in my naivety, I never foresaw that a pint of Guinness would reach the €6 mark in Galway; in 2025, it’s at least that in several city centre pubs.
If Boston or New York is on your itinerary, prepare to be the victim of an unarmed robbery when visiting a hostelry. It’s often $10 or more, before the required tip, for a pint of uncertain quality at a juncture when there is currency parity between the euro and the dollar. And in Edinburgh on a weekend in mid-February, paying less than €8 for a drink was a win. Good lord!
It’s almost enough to make one stay at home. Yes, almost is the key word, as my wife would swiftly retort with a smirk. And just as many similarly minded readers can cite the bargains that they avail of, I will try sticking to my local, Fitzpatrick’s in Wicklow Town, where gorgeous Guinness still goes for €5.60, and to the clubhouse at Wicklow Golf Club, where it is a bit over a fiver with the membership discount. Small comforts in a world gone totally mad.
Larry Donnelly is a Boston born and educated attorney, a Law Lecturer at the University of Galway and a regular media contributor on politics, current affairs and law in Ireland and the US. Twitter/X: @LarryPDonnelly
Larry Donnelly