IF 2024 was the year of elections around the world, then the moniker for the twelve months ahead is uncertainty.
Much of that uncertainty stems from the stunning political comeback executed by the soon to be 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump.
With the proviso that no one knows precisely what to expect – and any pundits who explicitly or implicitly assert that they do are making it up as they go – let’s evaluate the possible outflow from Trump’s return to power.
Regrettably, I have plenty of questions and conjecture. I have very little by way of firm answers.
In the US, is Trump likely to deport millions of “illegal aliens” as fast as he can?
A paucity of resources, in tandem with a heap of logistical difficulties, preclude doing so speedily.
Also, once compulsory expulsions extend past convicted criminals and those of dubious moral character, there might be a negative response from compassionate women and men who are sceptical of immigration in the abstract, yet are equally repelled by the vista of internment camps full of vulnerable children or of well-ensconced members of their communities being uprooted.
What specific initiatives will the billionaire advocate to improve the lot of millions of Americans whose livelihoods have been damaged by the forces of technology and globalisation and who have been crippled financially by extraordinary inflation?
Will Trump push strongly for the hard right agenda favoured by the authors of “Project 2025” and their acolytes? And if he does, could it precipitate a revolt against Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections?
In sum, when it comes to my birthplace, will Trump’s deeds match his words? My suspicion is that it will be something of a mixed bag.
The US won’t devolve into fascism, on the one hand, as many of his more hysterical foes allege.
But on the flip side, there may be legitimate justification for mourning the marginalisation of the values once associated with “the land of the free and the home of the brave.”
From climate change to the Middle East
As for the rest of the world, among the astonishing truths about the race for the White House is that two of the issues that animate people in western countries, at least, warranted nary a mention from Trump or his rival, Kamala Harris.
The existential menace of climate tumult and the horrific ongoing events in Gaza barely featured during the campaign and weren’t high on the list of concerns for a clear majority of voters.
In short, it’s a relatively safe bet that nothing good is going to emerge from the Trump administration on the earth’s changing climate. “Drill, baby, drill” is the preferred chant of the man himself.
In addition to the harms engendered by the US reneging on prior and planned commitments, there is the further danger that other leaders may abandon their own potentially politically detrimental efforts to combat climate chaos as they appear utterly futile in the wake of the volte face of one of the worst polluters.
On Gaza and the Middle East, there seemed to be vagaries in Trump’s posturing when he was chasing support, in that he cosied up to prominent Muslims in Michigan and beyond, and wasn’t totally uncritical of Israel.
Some of the influential individuals who have his ear, however, lack sympathy for the plight of innocent Palestinians.
For instance, his choice of US Ambassador to Israel, ex-Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, is linked to some radical, unsavoury figures there and identifies proudly as an “unapologetic, unreformed Zionist.”
My guess is that Trump, who generally disdains armed conflict, intends to “permit” Benjamin Netanyahu to do what he deems necessary in the name of security, but to insist that the job is done quickly.
What that might translate to in reality is extremely frightening.
Europe — the likely road ahead
In Europe, what will happen ultimately in Ukraine is obviously front and centre.
President-elect Trump claims he will stop the Russian incursion swiftly.
It can reasonably be assumed that the bargain he has in mind involves Volodymyr Zelenskyy surrendering territory to Vladimir Putin; Trump is convinced that he can simultaneously persuade the latter to forsake his expansionist objectives.
It’s a typically simple solution to a complex problem and it is far from guaranteed to work.
In a broader sense, everyone recognises that the person set to be commander-in-chief is not enamoured of NATO and wants Europeans to pay more for their own defence.
Crucially, it is worth noting that polls show most Americans, across the ideological spectrum, concur.
They vehemently oppose sending US soldiers to fight wars unless the national interest, narrowly defined, is imperilled. This isolationist pivot has already prompted fraught conversations within the European Union.
And it shouldn’t be long until there is a badly needed debate here in Ireland regarding the low level of military spending and the ambiguous policy of neutrality.
Ireland
Irish voters bucked the widespread trend toward disorder.
Their collective decision to endorse the two largest parties in government, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, arguably demonstrates a thirst for stability in a volatile milieu.
They see what is occurring at the moment in France and Germany. And they know how gravely serious the threats posed to this island and its inhabitants are – ranging from the predicament of the undocumented Irish in the US, to foreign direct investment, to tariffs and trade – if President Trump and Co. act on their malevolent instincts.
Accordingly, the popular mood dictates that Micheál Martin, Simon Harris and whoever else is in the mix won’t be thanked if negotiations around forming a steady coalition to take charge are unnecessarily drawn out.
The latest bulletin of the Economic and Social Research Institute cautioning that house prices are overvalued by circa 10% and that the unsustainable acceleration of increases could result in a “painful correction” will only fuel anxiety.
To retain public confidence, the next government has to be in situ, ASAP.
I’ll finish what I hope isn’t too depressing an assessment of what 2025 may bring with a colossal understatement: we are in the midst of an uncertain time.
Despite this undeniably foreboding sketch, I remain stubbornly optimistic. We’ll get through it.
And notwithstanding the rather dark, swirling, geopolitical clouds hanging above us, I wish you and those close to you a blessed, happy and healthy new year.
Larry Donnelly is a Boston born and educated attorney, a Law Lecturer at the University of Galway and a regular media contributor on politics, current affairs and law in Ireland and the US. Twitter/X: @LarryPDonnelly
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